Isn't there analysis of expected fall in the populations of most countries ( even China ) due to falling birthrates? ( aside from the current depopulation discussion )
Isn't there analysis of expected fall in the populations of most countries ( even China ) due to falling birthrates? ( aside from the current depopulation discussion )
Yes. I mean on current trends, and assuming no interventions, most developed countries like China and Italy will shrink by 25% - over the next 50 to 100 years. Places like Nigeria are still growing. It is quite unprecedented.
Japan and China are already on special measures: both of them hate immigration, have growing pensioner populations, and know their economies and countries are aging rapidly. My guess is that both will have to start incentivising children financially or go under.
Nigeria is heading for starvation or mass emigration: they might survive if they can pull off an an economic miracle - my guess is they are facing huge political change. They simply cannot feed their people.
Russia is just so horrible that the people are drinking themselves to death, or fleeing abroad.
I could see Russia stabilising its population in the medium term ( century), but that's another one.
The natural course of events would have the population shrinking as per the complex inputs, to a point, and then rebound.
The post European plague type scenario, labour / crafts / etc are scarce, this creates a new age.
'We' seem determined to interfere in every natural system left to us, there is an increasing appetite to micro-manage the planet. It's a little difficult to determine whether this is choice or an emergent property from our very nature !
Isn't there analysis of expected fall in the populations of most countries ( even China ) due to falling birthrates? ( aside from the current depopulation discussion )
Yes. I mean on current trends, and assuming no interventions, most developed countries like China and Italy will shrink by 25% - over the next 50 to 100 years. Places like Nigeria are still growing. It is quite unprecedented.
So net numbers wise does this have anything to say about a depop agenda.
I mean if numbers are trending down for other ( assuming not coerced ) reasons, this is some evidence against said.
Edit: Scrap that, 75 years-ish obviously could be too long depending.
Japan and China are already on special measures: both of them hate immigration, have growing pensioner populations, and know their economies and countries are aging rapidly. My guess is that both will have to start incentivising children financially or go under.
Nigeria is heading for starvation or mass emigration: they might survive if they can pull off an an economic miracle - my guess is they are facing huge political change. They simply cannot feed their people.
Russia is just so horrible that the people are drinking themselves to death, or fleeing abroad.
I could see Russia stabilising its population in the medium term ( century), but that's another one.
The natural course of events would have the population shrinking as per the complex inputs, to a point, and then rebound.
The post European plague type scenario, labour / crafts / etc are scarce, this creates a new age.
'We' seem determined to interfere in every natural system left to us, there is an increasing appetite to micro-manage the planet. It's a little difficult to determine whether this is choice or an emergent property from our very nature !