It seems a little weird that the statistics are 12 months behind & that the ABS is pointing fingers to parents being tardy in their registration of the birth. In order to apply for maternity leave, one needs to register the birth of their child. The Australian government has in the past also paid a 'Baby Bonus' to new parents for which, of course, the birth needs to be registered in order to receive the government payment. I don't know if the Baby Bonus scheme is still in use, though. Also, parents who want to receive family tax benefits obviously need to register the birth of their child to receive them. Then there's Medicare: babies cannot receive any post-natal care until they are on their parents Medicare card which, of course, requires registration. So there are many reasons why parents would not delay reporting the birth of a child. Either the ABS is seriously deficient in updating statistics or there is an anomaly in the birth rates. I don't believe that the delay in parental reporting is a significant factor, despite what the ABS says.
Australia's' public broadcaster the ABC is providing some very bizarre commentary on reaching "Peak Child" and that our fertility rate is declining while giving no reason. It's like we are being programed to accept collapsing fertility as normal or natural?...
The Australian government is likely the WORST in the world. Nothing they do surprises me. Along with the witch from Auckland, Oceania is sitting in a ditch filled with governmental excreta.
As an Australian male, late 50s, let me say that barring any ramping up of the PLANdemic, I will be an EMIGRATION statistic for 1st quarter 2023. I will NOT be returning to this prison Island, I will NEVER forget the nightmare that was the last (almost) 3 years
Nov 15, 2022·edited Nov 15, 2022Liked by Jessica Rose
I can understand a slight delay in reporting of births in December. however, a) this should be consistent each year as a basis for comparison pre-revision and b) in a country like Australia where there are child benefits and tax incentives involved, protracted delays in reporting will NOT occur. Delays of up to a year in revising data (over both the calendar AND the tax years) are inexcusable.
But as usual in these situations, bureaucrats will throw improbable explanations into the mix to obfuscate the truth. They are experts at doing this!
Hey Jessica - I think there's a key piece of information you may be missing in the ABS's data quality section; specifically: "Of the 309,996 births registered in 2021, 88.2% (273,301) occurred in 2021, while 9.0% occurred in 2020 (27,751) and the remainder occurred in 2019 or earlier years."
So we can see that almost 90% of births registered in a given year (2021 in this case) were registered in that same year, and only 9% related to the previous year. So given this data release was in Oct/Nov 2022 (i.e. almost a year after the year in question), from their historical reporting rates it seems that c. 97% (or close to) of births should have been reported already. So, while we can expect some increase over time in the numbers for late 2021 births, I suspect it won't get us back to 'normal', and the complete data will still show a significant decline from late 2021... (in line with glimpses of data we're seeing internationally).
PS the state of Victoria seems the slowest - they have only 21 births registered in Dec 2021 in the current ABS dataset, and we can see from the ABS data quality section that they have the greatest proportion of births back-dated to previous years. But that's just a side-note.
This is a problem of government ineptitude on display. In the US there is still no "official count" of the number of deaths in 2020, this in spite of death certificates being "promptly" recorded within 2 months of date of expiration. It is even worse with births. Every baby born in the US gets a birth certificate filed with the county of birth and that actually happens promptly. But in addition, every baby born in the US gets a social security card application filed at the hospital, literally as soon as the child has a name. Our 3rd child we were having trouble deciding on a name and the day after he was born the nurses were really on us about getting him named so the paperwork could be filed as required by law. On the social security application it even says the application is filed because of a birth. You would think it easy to get that data compiled. We even got the card before the 6 weeks of maternity leave ended. At most it should have a 6 week lag. Nope, still no idea how many people were born in the US in 2020.
Government sucks at doing anything they are actually supposed to do because they are too busy doing inane shit they have no business being involved in.
I agree that the data from the ABS is poor, and it is a data lag that you're seeing here - I saw exactly the same thing when I was looking at the data for 2020 at a similar time in 2021. Unfortunately the ABS is also reliant on the states reporting their data to them, and when you go digging into the data that is available directly from the states (if you can find it) it is almost impossible to match up the data between the ABS and the states.
There are also other confounding issues, such as how stillbirths are reported, which varies from state to state, and that the ABS is (apparently) trying to get the births matched to actual month of birth rather than month of registration - as well as the simple fact that their various different tools don't link to the same data sets. I do know someone who is getting the raw registration monthly data directly from NSW Births, Deaths and Marriages, but that doesn't appear to be available online,.
Looking forward to following this train of "find the data"😉🙏
Re the declining populations prior to covid, this has been followed and speculated by quite a few of us. Dr Zac Bush has discussed this most recently in the last 10 years, as being a result of the pernicious glysophate usage within the agricultural industry globally, and the resulting effects shown in the fertility and genetic mouse studies, involving F0, F1 and F2. F0 being the baby boomers (If I'm remembering correctly), and had relatively no fertility issues, while F1 showed neurodegenerative, CNS and Autism, while the physically deformities, DNA breaks, starts in F2.
Worth looking at or discussing with him, he can point you o the Italian, French and Spanish studies.
Plus see Stephanie Seneffs work, re substituting the glycine molecule, sulphur rings and deuterium.
After a brief lockdown in 2020 Western Australia closed its borders (against the constitution) and eliminated community transmission by April 2020. We had few cases till December 2021 when someone took it to a new years party. Had lockdowns and universal mask wearing in 2022 and they also stopped unvaccinated people from going to work (ie me) in many jobs for about 5 months, until ?April 2022 when community spread of Omicron was so ubiquitous among vaccinated people that they finally gave up on the health measures, when it was crystal clear they weren’t working and the unvaccinated were not getting Omicron any worse.
I have a feeling this might skew the statistics too as the other States all had Covid same time as the rest of the world.
WA has 11 percent of the nations population = 2.76 million in 2021 apparently
Bureau of meteorology here is notorious now for fudging the figures. I hope ABS hasn’t gone down the sink too.
Nov 14, 2022·edited Nov 15, 2022Liked by Jessica Rose
Hi Jessica. There may be some problems with the methodology your using. Using the “data explorer” instead of their “reports”. The problem is the ABS is not the registry and they rely on the states to report the numbers to them so there may be reporting delays between the states to the ABS as well as other processing delays. It’s hard to get “real time” data from ABS because I don’t think it was ever intended to be a real time reporting system. Their “annual reports” are usually about 9 months behind real time data so the delays are not an issue for them for their “official reports.” The yearly population figures are usually estimates but there was a census in 2021 so a flat line 2020 to 2021 could just be an artifact of going from “estimate” to “actual” rather than a real decline in the rate.
I haven’t looked at your figures in detail, on the surface they are alarming, I have previously looked at deaths and thought “wow that looks sus” then on further digging found that the data I was looking at had lags and anomalies that were explained by the way the data is collected.
Not trying to debunk your message, it’s just that previously I’d thought I had a smoking gun and found it to just be a property of the timing in the data collection method.
Edit: The comments by “The Goat” are pretty much what I’m talking about. Also I like someone’s comment that they’re moving at “The speed of bureaucracy.”
It seems a little weird that the statistics are 12 months behind & that the ABS is pointing fingers to parents being tardy in their registration of the birth. In order to apply for maternity leave, one needs to register the birth of their child. The Australian government has in the past also paid a 'Baby Bonus' to new parents for which, of course, the birth needs to be registered in order to receive the government payment. I don't know if the Baby Bonus scheme is still in use, though. Also, parents who want to receive family tax benefits obviously need to register the birth of their child to receive them. Then there's Medicare: babies cannot receive any post-natal care until they are on their parents Medicare card which, of course, requires registration. So there are many reasons why parents would not delay reporting the birth of a child. Either the ABS is seriously deficient in updating statistics or there is an anomaly in the birth rates. I don't believe that the delay in parental reporting is a significant factor, despite what the ABS says.
Australia's' public broadcaster the ABC is providing some very bizarre commentary on reaching "Peak Child" and that our fertility rate is declining while giving no reason. It's like we are being programed to accept collapsing fertility as normal or natural?...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-13/earths-population-reaches-eight-billion-people/101643854
The Australian government is likely the WORST in the world. Nothing they do surprises me. Along with the witch from Auckland, Oceania is sitting in a ditch filled with governmental excreta.
Sounds similar to the CDC “updating” their database. Which took months. And the update was clearly about manipulation.
As an Australian male, late 50s, let me say that barring any ramping up of the PLANdemic, I will be an EMIGRATION statistic for 1st quarter 2023. I will NOT be returning to this prison Island, I will NEVER forget the nightmare that was the last (almost) 3 years
I can understand a slight delay in reporting of births in December. however, a) this should be consistent each year as a basis for comparison pre-revision and b) in a country like Australia where there are child benefits and tax incentives involved, protracted delays in reporting will NOT occur. Delays of up to a year in revising data (over both the calendar AND the tax years) are inexcusable.
But as usual in these situations, bureaucrats will throw improbable explanations into the mix to obfuscate the truth. They are experts at doing this!
Hey Jessica - I think there's a key piece of information you may be missing in the ABS's data quality section; specifically: "Of the 309,996 births registered in 2021, 88.2% (273,301) occurred in 2021, while 9.0% occurred in 2020 (27,751) and the remainder occurred in 2019 or earlier years."
So we can see that almost 90% of births registered in a given year (2021 in this case) were registered in that same year, and only 9% related to the previous year. So given this data release was in Oct/Nov 2022 (i.e. almost a year after the year in question), from their historical reporting rates it seems that c. 97% (or close to) of births should have been reported already. So, while we can expect some increase over time in the numbers for late 2021 births, I suspect it won't get us back to 'normal', and the complete data will still show a significant decline from late 2021... (in line with glimpses of data we're seeing internationally).
PS the state of Victoria seems the slowest - they have only 21 births registered in Dec 2021 in the current ABS dataset, and we can see from the ABS data quality section that they have the greatest proportion of births back-dated to previous years. But that's just a side-note.
WEF: "Hasta la vista, baby!"
GOD bless you Jessica Rose for being a committed & courageous TRUTH Warrior ...
This is a problem of government ineptitude on display. In the US there is still no "official count" of the number of deaths in 2020, this in spite of death certificates being "promptly" recorded within 2 months of date of expiration. It is even worse with births. Every baby born in the US gets a birth certificate filed with the county of birth and that actually happens promptly. But in addition, every baby born in the US gets a social security card application filed at the hospital, literally as soon as the child has a name. Our 3rd child we were having trouble deciding on a name and the day after he was born the nurses were really on us about getting him named so the paperwork could be filed as required by law. On the social security application it even says the application is filed because of a birth. You would think it easy to get that data compiled. We even got the card before the 6 weeks of maternity leave ended. At most it should have a 6 week lag. Nope, still no idea how many people were born in the US in 2020.
Government sucks at doing anything they are actually supposed to do because they are too busy doing inane shit they have no business being involved in.
I agree that the data from the ABS is poor, and it is a data lag that you're seeing here - I saw exactly the same thing when I was looking at the data for 2020 at a similar time in 2021. Unfortunately the ABS is also reliant on the states reporting their data to them, and when you go digging into the data that is available directly from the states (if you can find it) it is almost impossible to match up the data between the ABS and the states.
There are also other confounding issues, such as how stillbirths are reported, which varies from state to state, and that the ABS is (apparently) trying to get the births matched to actual month of birth rather than month of registration - as well as the simple fact that their various different tools don't link to the same data sets. I do know someone who is getting the raw registration monthly data directly from NSW Births, Deaths and Marriages, but that doesn't appear to be available online,.
Another clever delay tactic
Looking forward to following this train of "find the data"😉🙏
Re the declining populations prior to covid, this has been followed and speculated by quite a few of us. Dr Zac Bush has discussed this most recently in the last 10 years, as being a result of the pernicious glysophate usage within the agricultural industry globally, and the resulting effects shown in the fertility and genetic mouse studies, involving F0, F1 and F2. F0 being the baby boomers (If I'm remembering correctly), and had relatively no fertility issues, while F1 showed neurodegenerative, CNS and Autism, while the physically deformities, DNA breaks, starts in F2.
Worth looking at or discussing with him, he can point you o the Italian, French and Spanish studies.
Plus see Stephanie Seneffs work, re substituting the glycine molecule, sulphur rings and deuterium.
Now chuck in the lipid nano partical etc....🤔🤔😐😑
Where did they come from? Maricopa County, Arizona USA?
After a brief lockdown in 2020 Western Australia closed its borders (against the constitution) and eliminated community transmission by April 2020. We had few cases till December 2021 when someone took it to a new years party. Had lockdowns and universal mask wearing in 2022 and they also stopped unvaccinated people from going to work (ie me) in many jobs for about 5 months, until ?April 2022 when community spread of Omicron was so ubiquitous among vaccinated people that they finally gave up on the health measures, when it was crystal clear they weren’t working and the unvaccinated were not getting Omicron any worse.
I have a feeling this might skew the statistics too as the other States all had Covid same time as the rest of the world.
WA has 11 percent of the nations population = 2.76 million in 2021 apparently
Bureau of meteorology here is notorious now for fudging the figures. I hope ABS hasn’t gone down the sink too.
Hi Jessica. There may be some problems with the methodology your using. Using the “data explorer” instead of their “reports”. The problem is the ABS is not the registry and they rely on the states to report the numbers to them so there may be reporting delays between the states to the ABS as well as other processing delays. It’s hard to get “real time” data from ABS because I don’t think it was ever intended to be a real time reporting system. Their “annual reports” are usually about 9 months behind real time data so the delays are not an issue for them for their “official reports.” The yearly population figures are usually estimates but there was a census in 2021 so a flat line 2020 to 2021 could just be an artifact of going from “estimate” to “actual” rather than a real decline in the rate.
I haven’t looked at your figures in detail, on the surface they are alarming, I have previously looked at deaths and thought “wow that looks sus” then on further digging found that the data I was looking at had lags and anomalies that were explained by the way the data is collected.
Not trying to debunk your message, it’s just that previously I’d thought I had a smoking gun and found it to just be a property of the timing in the data collection method.
Edit: The comments by “The Goat” are pretty much what I’m talking about. Also I like someone’s comment that they’re moving at “The speed of bureaucracy.”