Aluminum exposure and autism prevalence

An addendum to my previous article based on your amazing comments

First, head here to read this article. The reason “inflection points” is in air quotes now is because mathematically, an inflection point does require a change in sign, not just slope. Thanks to Denis Rancourt who correctly pointed out this out. The meaning of the word inflection alone (as opposed to inflection point) is more appropriate here since we are talking about mathematical curves.

An inflection according to Miriam-Webster’s dictionary is as follows:

the act or result of curving or bending

so it’s best to drop the word point, in this case. I will simply use air quotes, however. Because I like them, and it’s not inappropriate here since I am requesting clarification for the nuanced meaning of the words by using them.

Figure 1: Longboard Inflection: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMZ0daIVXdY

Here’s the “here”.

Another amazing comment left by Patrick Frank is shown below. (Substack really kicks the ass of the conventional peer review system.) He brings us back to math and prompts me to find true inflection points (changes in concavity) by calculating the first and second derivatives of the best fit function. Because an inflection point is defined by a sign change in the second derivative, directly causing a change in concavity (alteration in the curve’s curvature), I decided to forego the task of trying to find any, since there are likely no true inflection points in this case.

But the second suggestion is great. He suggests a new plot showing cumulative vaccine number against the autism rates.

When the vaccine data is plotted against the autism data, a very nice pattern emerges: one that might be expected based on the previous analysis. Here’s the plot.

The log-linear trend line in cyan shows an exponential-like increase in autism prevalence as cumulative doses increase, especially after ~30 doses (1995 onward). Thus, the graph suggests a positive relationship: as cumulative doses increase, autism prevalence increases exponentially.

This also therefore implies a link between aluminum exposure and autism prevalence since the vaccine data used in this case is only for vaccines that include aluminum adjuvants.

More to come.