SAVAERS - a simple analysis of the data

What's going on in South Africa?

Hello all! Well you might not realize it but contrary to the South African Government’s desires, a Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System had been designed and implemented in South Africa called SAVAERS.

This is thanks to lovely and amazing human beings including Shabnam Palesa Mohamed.

I have some of this data. The system is only for use in South Africa so if you click here: SAVAERS link and you get the following Error, then that is why.

I am going to share the small amount of adverse event data that I have analyzed that I have access to. Thank you very much to my source. There’s not much to see, but it proves that the system works, is being used by the public after existing for a very short time, and that people are suffering adverse events from the COVID-19 injectable products in South Africa.

Figure 1: Histogram showing age-stratified distribution of adverse event reports to SAVAERS.

Figure 1 shows the age-stratified distribution of the 518 adverse event reports filed to SAVAERS in the short time that it has been on the go. The distribution is unimodal and follows the same distribution pattern as for VAERS data when plotting all adverse events in this way. What this means is that the adverse events are occurring and being reported by people in all age groups. There are more reports filed for 40-50 year olds, but no age group appears to be excluded. Even the younger age group 10-20 has 4 reports. No under-reporting factor is considered here. At the time that this data was collected, ~20% of the South African population had been injected.

To date, only 25% of the population of South Africa has been injected, so for such low injection rates at the population level, one might expect a low number of adverse event reports. Well, we do have a low number. But this could simply be due to its short duration in action. Time will tell.

Figure 2: Our World in Data - Fully Injected population in South Africa by date.

The distribution of deaths, hospitalizations and emergency room (ER) visits seen in Figure 3 reveals unimodal distribution of emergency room adverse event reports (left) with the most reports made for 40-50 year olds. Reports of hospitalizations are more evenly distributed with fewer reports made by the 50-60 year olds. Perhaps the majority of individuals in this age group showed up at the ER and were subsequently treated and sent home. Note that the hospitalizations and ER visits will certainly overlap.

Figure 3: Histograms showing age-stratified distribution of emergency room visits (left), hospitalizations (center) and deaths (right) in SAVAERS.

Deaths occurred in every age group with 1 child between 10 and 20 years of age, and the highest number of death reports were made for 40-50 year olds. Of the total adverse event count, 40 (8%) died, 70 (15%) required hospitalization and 157 (30%) required ER visits. These are all considered to be Severe Adverse Events (SAEs) and the percentage of ER visits is far above the baseline SAE precentage according to VAERS (15%). It is important to remind everyone reading this that these numbers are very small so it is hard to draw conclusions at this point. But safe to say, reports were filed and 30% of them required a trip to the ER.

Want to talk about potential causation? Since SAVAERS includes injection date and onset of adverse event date data, we can calculate the amount of time that passed between these two dates and plot these calculations against the percentage of adverse events that occurred for each time frame. When we actually do this, we see that 59% of the reports were made within 48 hours. 48% were made within 24 hours. That’s a lot of reports filed within 2 days. And remember, there is a time delay between succumbing to an adverse event, reporting an adverse event and having this report ‘show up’ on the front end of the database.

Figure 4: Time series plot showing temporal association between the adverse event reports and the duration between injection and onset dates.

I will try to update these data periodically but it is data availability pending. Let me know if anyone has a question. I can try to answer with data.

One thing before I go. The SAVAERS system has a column vector where they collect data on mental disturbances following the injections. It is VERY telling. Here are some entries:

I am scared. Don't know what to expect. I really felt like I am dying on Monday. It is really so scary. And i am terrified going for my second vaccine on the 10th of September.

Extreme anxiety, worry about a blood clot, not knowing if I will survive. UPDATE 2021/08/24. I am constantly worried about death, having a stroke or heart attack. I am unable to work.

The ringing sounds and sloshing sounds and other sounds are making me go mad - I cannot think straight. It is affecting my memory as I can’t remember information and numbers.

Very traumatic. Lots of anxiety caused by the pain and pressure in heart region. Feels like I am having a heart attack all the time.

It frightened me severely. I thought I was going to die Thursday. Hospital was full. I was given Xeralto and something else and ask to return next day as hospital had no beds.

Cannot go to work as cannot function at all. Muddled up, confusion of facts, time/ days of the week.

Concern & worry. I really think this under tested vaccine is killing the elderly with under lying health conditions - the numbers are growing daily of Granny's of my kids' friends.

Since getting the vaccine I’m sick every week and I mean every week. I never use to get flu the way I’m getting now. Chest pains as well. Shortness of breath.

I have since updated the data!